[Comparative severity of COVID-19 cases caused by Alpha, Delta or Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants and its association with vaccination]. / Gravedad comparativa de los casos de COVID-19 causados por las variantes Alfa, Delta u Ómicron de SARS-CoV-2 y su asociación con la vacunación.

BACKGROUND: This study compares the severity of SARS-CoV-2 infections caused by Alpha, Delta or Omicron variants in periods of co-circulation in Spain, and estimates the variant-specific association of vaccination with severe disease. METHODS: SARS-CoV-2 infections notified to the national epidemiological surveillance network with information on genetic variant and vaccination status were considered cases if they required hospitalisation or controls otherwise. Alpha and Delta were compared during June-July 2021; and Delta and Omicron during December 2021-January 2022. Adjusted Odds Ratios (aOR) were estimated using logistic regression, comparing variant and vaccination status between cases and controls. RESULTS: We included 5,345 Alpha and 11,974 Delta infections in June-July and, 5,272 Delta and 10,578 Omicron in December-January. Unvaccinated cases of Alpha (aOR: 0.57; 95% CI: 0.46-0.69) or Omicron (0.28; 0.21-0.36) had lower probability of hospitalisation vs. Delta. Complete vaccination reduced hospitalisation, similarly for Alpha (0.16; 0.13-0.21) and Delta (June-July: 0.16; 0.14-0.19; December-January: 0.36; 0.30-0.44) but lower from Omicron (0.63; 0.53-0.75) and individuals aged 65+ years. CONCLUSION: Results indicate higher intrinsic severity of the Delta variant, compared with Alpha or Omicron, with smaller differences among vaccinated individuals. Nevertheless, vaccination was associated to reduced hospitalisation in all groups.

Gravedad comparativa de los casos de COVID-19 causados por las variantes Alfa, Delta u Ómicron de SARS-CoV-2 y su asociación con la vacunación Comparative severity of COVID-19 cases caused by Alpha, Delta or Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants and its association with vaccination

Introducción: El objetivo es comprar la gravedad de las infecciones por las variantes Alfa, Delta y Ómicron del SARS-CoV-2 en periodos de co-circulación en España, y estimar la asociación entre vacunación y gravedad en cada variante. Métodos: Las infecciones por SARS-CoV-2 notificadas a la red nacional de vigilancia epidemiológica con información sobre la variante viral y el estado de vacunación se clasificaron como casos si habían requerido hospitalización, o como controles en caso contrario. Alfa y Delta se compararon durante Junio-Julio de 2021;y Delta y Ómicron durante Diciembre 2021-Enero 2022. Se estimaron Odds Ratios ajustadas (ORa) mediante regresión logística, comparando la variante y el estado de vacunación entre casos y controles. Resultados: Se incluyeron 5,345 infecciones por variante Alfa y 11,974 por Delta en Junio-Julio y 5,272 infecciones por Delta y 10,578 por Ómicron en Diciembre-Enero. Los casos no vacunados por Alfa (aOR: 0.57;95% CI: 0.46-0.69) u Ómicron (0.28;0.21-0.36) tuvieron menor probabilidad de hospitalización comparado con Delta. La vacunación completa se asoció a menor hospitalización de forma similar para Alfa (0.16;0.13-0.21) y Delta (Junio-Julio: 0.16;0.14-0.19;Diciembre-Enero: 0.36;0.30-0.44) pero menor para Ómicron (0.63;0.53-0.75) y para individuos con 65+ años. Conclusion: Los resultados indican una mayor gravedad intrínseca de la variante Delta comparada con Alfa u Ómicron, con menor diferencia entre personas vacunadas. La vacunación se asoció a menor hospitalización en todos los grupos.

Severity of the clinical presentation of hepatitis A in five European countries from 1995 to 2014.

OBJECTIVES: We analysed hepatitis A (HepA) notifications and hospitalisations in Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, and Sweden for available periods between 1995 and 2014. We aimed to investigate whether decreasing HepA incidence is associated with increasing age at infection and worsening HepA presentation and to identify groups at risk of severe disease. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study including 36 734 notified and 36 849 hospitalised patients. We used negative binomial regressions to identify over time: i) trends in hospitalisation and notification rates; ii) proportion of hospitalised and notified patients aged ≥40 years; iii) proportion of "severe hospitalisations"; and iv) risk factors for severe hospitalisation. RESULTS: During the study period both HepA notifications and hospitalisations decreased, with notification rates decreasing faster, patients aged ≥40 years increased, however, the proportion of severe HepA hospitalisations remained stable. Older patients and patients with comorbidities, particularly liver diseases, were more likely to experience severe disease. CONCLUSIONS: We used digitalised health information to confirm decreasing trends in HepA hospitalisations and notifications, and the increasing age of patients with HepA in Europe. We did not identify an increase in the severity of the clinical presentation of patients with HepA. Older patients with liver diseases are at increased risk of severe disease and should be prioritised for vaccination.

Near real-time surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic with incomplete data (preprint)

Designing public health responses to outbreaks requires close monitoring of population-level health indicators in real-time. Thus an accurate estimation of the epidemic curve is critical. We propose an approach to reconstruct epidemic curves in near real time. We apply this approach to characterize the early SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in two Spanish regions between the months of March and April 2020. We address two data collection problems that affected the reliability of the available real-time epidemiological data, namely, the frequent missing information documenting when a patient first experienced symptoms, and the frequent retrospective revision of historical information (including right censoring). This is done by using a novel back-calculating procedure based on imputing patients dates of symptom onset from reported cases, according to a dynamically-estimated backward reporting delay conditional distribution, and adjusting for right censoring using an existing package, NobBS, to estimate in real time (nowcast) cases by date of symptom onset. This process allows us to obtain an approximation of the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) in real-time. At each step, we evaluate how different assumptions affect the recovered epidemiological events and compare the proposed approach to the alternative procedure of merely using curves of case counts, by report day, to characterize the time-evolution of the outbreak. Finally, we assess how these real-time estimates compare with subsequently documented epidemiological information that is considered more reliable and complete that became available weeks to months later in time. Our approach may help improve accuracy, quantify uncertainty, and evaluate frequently unstated assumptions when recovering the epidemic curves from limited data obtained from public health surveillance systems in other locations.